A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
